By Lynn Venhaus

After the longest awards season ever and the weirdest movie year of all-time, we reach the finish line with the Oscars Sunday night.

People may gripe about the 93rd Academy Awards for several reasons, but you can’t say it is not going to be memorable. It might even be historic – there are a few records certain to be broken.

With 70 women nominated — the most ever – and a record two women in the directing category, we may see only the second woman win Best Director – and the first woman of color nominated. In 93 years! More on this in the category sections.

The show starts at 7 p.m. CST on ABC, coming to us live from the Los Angeles Union Station – and trains will be coming and going – and the Dolby Theatre. The previous award shows this season have involved taped segments and some Zooming, and ratings have tanked.

But producers claim this show will be different.

“The Oscars are not a webinar,” stated producer Steven Soderbergh, a filmmaker and Oscar winner for “Traffic.”

The Oscars, usually in February since 2004, pushed film eligibility to Feb. 28 and the awards for April 25, with some other groups doing the same, pandemic and all. What has shifted is the Big Mo, because movies like “Judas and the Black Messiah” came out later and Daniel Kaluuya went to the top of the list for Best Supporting Actor (even though he is a lead, but this isn’t the first example of category fraud and won’t be the last). I call this the second round, because many critics’ groups announced earlier.

After all the other awards – I am not counting the Golden Globes because we need to have a serious reckoning with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association – frontrunners have definitely emerged.

What has transpired with the Screen Actors Guild, other guilds (DGA, WGA, PGA), BAFTA (British awards), Independent Spirit Awards and the critics groups – I belong to the Critics Choice Association, Alliance of Women Film Journalists and St. Louis Film Critics Association – is either shoo-ins, like Kaluuya, “Soul” for Original Score and “Sound of Metal” for Best Sound, or tight nail-biters, such as Best Actress and Best Song.

It is easy to get cynical about the year that was, with movie theaters struggling and few blockbusters enticing folks out of their homes during a global pandemic, but I have seen many good movies streamed into my living room. I am OK with independent films and small-scale storytelling. I have seen nearly 170 films since the public health emergency forced a shutdown. I

After months of staying at home, I saw “Tenet” at the IMAX but have not returned to a movie theatre since then. Now that I am vaccinated and a COVID-19 survivor, I intend to go back. I miss that whole experience of “going to the movies.” It will be so satisfying when we can all watch a movie with an audience. I will never take it for granted again, and has been such a big part of my life since my youth.

The eight movies nominated for Best Picture are worthy and would be praised in any year: “The Father,” “Judas and the Black Messiah,” “Mank” (more for technical brilliance), “Minari,” “Nomadland,” “Promising Young Woman,” “Sound of Metal” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7.” “Da 5 Bloods” should be there.

My top 6 of the year were “Nomadland,” “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” “Da 5 Bloods,” “Minari,” “Promising Young Woman” and “Soul.” “Sound of Metal” was no. 11.

Now, every year, when I predict the Oscars, I overthink it. Some years are better guesses than others. And really, until that envelope is opened, one never knows (except for Price Waterhouse Coopers, the accounting firm that tabulates.

Currently, there are 10,000 members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. The Best Picture ballot is the only one where voting is different – it is a preferential ballot, where voters rank 1 through up to 10 (this year, 8). The winner must receive 50 percent of the vote plus 1. That is why we’ve had several upsets in recent years (“Moonlight” over “La La Land,” “Green Book” in 2019 and “Parasite” in 2020.

Without further ado, here are my predictions in all 23 categories, based on personal preferences and gut feelings, along with or the ‘conventional wisdom” of prognosticators and Oscar-metrics (yes, that is a thing).

BEST PICTURE
Will Win: Nomadland
Should Win: Nomadland
Could Win: Minari

BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Chloe Zhao “Nomadland”
Should Win: Chloe Zhao
Could Win: She’s won 40+ awards; it really is hers to lose

BEST ACTOR
Will Win: Chadwick Boseman “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Should Win: Chadwick Boseman
Could Win: Anthony Hopkins, “The Father”

BEST ACTRESS:
Will Win: Tough call but I am going with Carey Mulligan “Promising Young Woman”
Should Win: Carey Mulligan
Could Win: Frances McDormand “Nomadland” or Andra Day “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Will Win: Yun-Jung Youn “Minari”
Should Win: Yun-Jung Youn
Could Win: Maria Bakalova “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya (but it’s not a lead)
Could win: Paul Raci “Sound of Metal”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Emerald Fennell “Promising Young Woman”
Should Win: Emerald Fennell
Could Win: Aaron Sorkin “The Trial of the Chicago 7”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Floran Zeller “The Father”
Should Win: Floran Zeller “The Father”
Could Win: Chloe Zhao “Nomadland”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: Joshua James Richardson “Nomadland”
Should Win: Nomadland
Could Win: “Mank”

BEST EDITING
Will Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Should Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Could Win: “Sound of Metal” or “The Father”

BEST MUSIC SCORE
Will Win: Jon Batiste, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, “Soul”
Should Win: “Soul”
Could Win: “Mank”

BEST SONG
Will Win: “Speak Now” One Night in Miami
Should Win: “Fight for You” Judas and the Black Messiah
Could Win: “Lo Si” The Life Ahead

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will Win: Mank
Should Win: Mank
Could Win: The Father

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: Tenet
Should Win: Tenet
Could Win: Mulan

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Will Win: Soul
Should Win: Soul
Could Win: Wolfwalkers

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will Win: My Octopus Teacher
Should Win: Crip Camp
Could Win: Time

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Will Win: Another Round
Should Win: Quo Vadis, Aida
Could Win: Collective

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Should Win: Mank
Could Win: Pinocchio

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Should Win: Emma
Could Win: Mank

BEST SOUND
Will Win: Sound of Metal
Should Win: Sound of Metal
Could Win: Mank

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Will Win: A Concerto is a Conversation
Should Win: Love Song for Latasha
Could Win: Colette

LIVE ACTION SHORT SUBJECT
Will Win: Two Distant Strangers
Should Win: Two Distant Strangers
Could Win: The Letter Room

ANIMATED SHORT SUBJECT
Will Win: If Anything Happens I Love You
Should Win: If Anything Happens I Love You
Could Win: Opera

By Lynn Venhaus
We still have a race for Best Picture and Director, as we try to gauge the momentum going into Sunday. Will it be “Parasite” or “1917,” or will fading frontrunner “Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood regain its luster? After all, Hollywood loves movies about Hollywood.

The 92nd Academy Awards take place Feb. 9, with ABC broadcasting red carpet live coverage at 5:30 p.m. and the ceremony underway at 7 p.m. CST. This year is the second in a row where there is no host, and it seemed to speed up the proceedings last year. We shall see.

The acting Oscars were apparently sown up weeks ago, as awards season began. If there is any movement, it may be in Supporting Actress, where newcomer Florence Pugh is coming on strong.

The shoo-ins this year? You can safely bet on “Parasite” as Best International Feature, Brad Pitt as Best Supporting Actor in “Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood,” his fourth performance nomination (and he’ll likely give the best speech of the night) and Roger Deakins as cinematographer for “1917.”

Will there be surprises and upsets? Or will it be as the pundits predict? Only time will tell. Let’s just hope it’s a fun watch and deserving wins to put the finishing touches on 2019 in film.

And afterwards, we’ll have memes, fashion debates and acceptance speeches to remember.

Here are my picks for the 24 awards:

Best Picture

1917

1917, Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, JoJo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood and Parasite

My original frontrunner, “Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood” has faded, and the big momentum is with either “1917” or “Parasite.” I think Oscar voters, with the older voting block, will go with the heart-wrenching World War I epic and be content for “Parasite” to win Best International Feature. While there is always the possibility of an upset, I think the massive endeavor “1917” is deserving.

Best Director

Sam Mendes, (Photo by Richard Goldschmidt)

Sam Mendes, “1917”; Martin Scorsese, “The Irishman”; Todd Phillips, “Joker”; Quentin Tarantino “Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood” and Bong Joon-Ho, “Parasite”

I am in the “Sam Mendes is a genius” camp but Bong Joon-Ho’s work in “Parasite” is worthy too. Both are innovative, visual artists. I’d like a tie, like Critics Choice Association. I’m going with Mendes, as he won Directors Guild of America, the big prognosticator.

Joker

Best Actor

Antonio Banderas, “Pain and Glory”; Leonardo DiCaprio “Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood”; Adam Driver, “Marriage Story”; Joaquin Phoenix “Joker”; Jonathan Pryce “The Two Popes.”

Hands down, Joaquin Phoenix. He gave us pathos as he showed Joker’s pain behind the façade and made his descent into madness frightening. Nobody is more fearless working in film today. Adam Driver would be a close second for his acting showcase in “Marriage Story.”

Judy

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo, “Harriet”; Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story”: Saoirse Ronan, “Little Women”; Charlize Theron, “Bombshell”; Renee Zellweger’s “Judy.”

Not a fan of Renee Zellweger’s “Judy” but she has won all earlier awards, and I see no reason why she wouldn’t. However, my pick would be the radiant Saoirse Ronan for “Little Women.” If there is an upset, Scarlett Johansson – finally nominated – would be a worthy winner for her tour de force in “Marriage Story.”

Best Supporting Actor

Ozark’s own Brad Pitt

 Tom Hanks, “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”; Anthony Hopkins, “The Two Popes”; Al Pacino “The Irishman”; Joe Pesci “The Irishman”; Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood.”

Perhaps the only sure thing Oscar night, Brad Pitt is a lock as stuntman Cliff Booth. He’s not just deserving but overdue. Besides, he’s certain to give the best speech of the night, given his track record this awards season.

Best Supporting Actress

Kathy Bates “Richard Jewell”; Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”; Scarlett Johansson, “JoJo Rabbit”; Florence Pugh, “Little Women”; Margot Robbie “Bombshell.”

While I think the acting Oscars have already been nailed down, this might be the upset category. Laura Dern as the shark lawyer in “Marriage Story,” obsessed with winning at all costs, is my pick, and she was also terrific in “Little Women,” but Margot Robbie’s ambitious Fox News staffer could edge her out or first-time nominee Scarlett Johansson could finally get Oscar love as the mom in “JoJo Rabbit.”

Best Adapted Screenplay

Greta Gerwig, “Little Women”;  Andrew McLaren, “The Two Popes”; Todd Phillips, “Joker”; Taika Waititi, “JoJo Rabbit”; Steve Zaillian “The Irishman.”

My favorite is Taika Waititi for the sharp social satire “JoJo Rabbit,” but the revered Steve Zaillian’s adaptation of “The Irishman” could be the film’s only win for its masterful storytelling.

Parasite

Best Original Screenplay

Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns, “1917”; Noah Baumbach, “Marriage Story”; Rian Johnson, “Knives Out”; Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood”; Bong Joon-Ho and Han Jin Wan, “Parasite.”

Best Cinematography

1917, The Irishman, Joker, The Lighthouse, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood.

What Roger Deakins did with “1917” is remarkable and propels him to his second win in three years. He had been snubbed for decades for his tremendous work in Coen Brothers’ films, then started working with director Denis Villeneuve a few years back – and finally won in 2018 for “Blade Runner 2049.” What he achieved with making “1917” appear to have been shot in two takes is incredible.

Best Editing

Ford v Ferrari

Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, JoJo Rabbit, Joker, Parasite.

How can “1917” be omitted here? I think a bone should be thrown to crowd-pleasing “Ford v. Ferrari.” This film was a challenging shot, and the editors captured both the thrill and danger of endurance racing.

Best Production Design

1917, The Irishman, JoJo Rabbit, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, Parasite.

For its meticulous research and replica of 1969 Hollywood, it must be “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.” However, the house in “Parasite” and all the trenches and realistic war landscape in “1917” make the case for those films.

Best Music Score

1917, Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.


Previously, I thought it was a battle between the Newman generations – Randy for “Marriage Story” and Thomas for ‘1917.” But now I’m in support of Hildur Gudnadottir winning for “Joker.’ From Iceland, Gudnadottir won the Emmy and Grammy for HBO’s “Chernobyl” and the Golden Globe and BAFTA for “Joker.” She’d be the first solo woman to win this Oscar, and I can get behind that.

Best Song

“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away Again,” Toy Story 4; “I’m Going to Stand with You,” Breakthrough; “Into the Unknown,” Frozen II; “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman; “Stand Up,” Harriet.

After much debate — and enjoying the Panic! At the Disco version of “Into the Unknown” a lot, I’m now resigned to Elton John winning for “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” his fourth nominated song but his first with longtime lyricist Bernie Taupin.

Best Costume Design

Little Women

The Irishman, JoJo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood.

“Little Women,” of course.

Bombshell

Best Hair and Makeup

1917, Bombshell, Joker, Judy, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil.
 
“Bombshell” for making the actresses look uncannily like the Fox women they portray, and for turning John Lithgow into a convincing Roger Ailes.

Best Sound Mixing

 1917, Ad Astra, Ford v Ferrari, Joker, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood.

“1917” is the likely winner but “Ford v Ferrari” would be a justifiable winner.

Best Sound Editing

1917, Ford v Ferrari, Joker, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker.

Ditto as to what I said about sound mixing.

Best Visual Effects

The Avengers Endgame

1917, The Avengers; Endgame,” “The Irishman,” “The Lion King” and “Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker.”

“The Avengers: Endgame” was so smooth and seamless, and the CGI not overdone, that I can’t imagine another movie winning. But there is that ninth little movie in a galaxy far, far away.

Toy Story 4

Best Animated Feature

The Hidden Link, How to Drain Your Dragon, I Lost My Body, Klaus, Toy Story 4.

The fitting and grand finale to one of my all-time favorite franchises, Pixar’s “Toy Story 4” should win, especially since “Frozen II” was snubbed. But Laika’s “The Missing Link” is adorable and the final chapter of “Dragon” is its most captivating.

Best International Feature

Corpus Christi, Honeyland, Les Miserables, Pain and Glory, Parasite.

The safest bet is South Korean’s “Parasite.” What a genre-bending masterpiece – its mix of comedy, drama, thriller and horror is one that will linger in your head for days.


Best Documentary Feature

American Factory, The Cave, The Edge of Democracy, For Sama, Honeyland,

Without the magnificent “Apollo 11” even nominated, I’ll give “American Factory” the edge, although “Honeyland,” about ancient beekeeping traditions in has a lot of love (which I don’t share).  Netflix’s “American Factory” is about a re-opened plant in Ohio now owned by Chinese businessmen, and the culture clash that develops. It is produced by Michelle and Barack Obama’s company Higher Ground.

Best Documentary Short

In the Absence, , Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone if You’re a Girl, Life Overtakes Me, St. Louis Superman, Walk Run Cha Cha.

As much as we’d love to see “St. Louis Superman” get national attention, it does have a questionable ending – and really, “Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone If You’re a Girl” appears to be headed for the win.

Best Live-Action Short

Brotherhood, Nefta Football Club, The Neighbors’ Window, Saria, A Sister.

This is one of those Oscar pool contest busters –usually the wild card. Although I’ve read “Saria” is gaining traction, I’m going with “The Neighbor’s Window” because, while its less of a gut-punch than the others, it seems the most unconventional. Overall, it’s a really depressing bunch.

Best Animated Short

Dcera, Hair Love, Kitbull, Memorable, Sister.

Often whatever Pixar short is before Disney’s blockbuster is the safe choice, but the studio didn’t put anything before “Toy Story IV” or “Frozen II.” Pixar’s “Kitbull” is hand-drawn and about the friendship of a kitten and an abused pitbull. Adorable, right? But “Hair Love,” about a dad’s effort to braid his daughter’s hair, which was shown before “Angry Birds 2,” is my choice for the gold.