By Alex McPherson

Alex’s Picks and Predictions for the 2021 Oscars

Well, dear readers, the 2021 Academy Awards are nearly upon us. How unbearably exciting. Although most of my favorite films of 2020 were snubbed — “First Cow,” “Bacurau,” “Da 5 Bloods,” and “Never Rarely Sometimes Always” among them — there’s still a fine crop nominated this time around. Below are my picks and predictions for most of the categories. Please keep in mind that, as a recently graduated University student perpetually hunting for a paying job, I haven’t had time to watch every nominated film, and as such, I have omitted categories that I couldn’t weigh in on effectively. Now that we’ve gotten all that out of the way, let’s begin.

Best Picture:

• The Father
• Judas and the Black Messiah
• Mank
• Minari
• Nomadland (prediction)
• Promising Young Woman (pick)
• Sound of Metal
• The Trial of the Chicago 7

My personal picks for “Best Picture” are “Sound of Metal” or “Promising Young Woman” — two thought-provoking, eminently well-crafted experiences supported by outstanding performances from Riz Ahmed and Carey Mulligan, respectively. I never officially reviewed “Promising Young Woman,” but the film’s genre-blurring style and controversial ending have stuck in my mind ever since I watched it. “Minari” is pretty damn good as well. Sheesh, I suppose that I enjoy all the nominees on some level. 

Anywho, director Chloé Zhao’s “Nomadland” will most certainly take top honors. A well-acted, atmospheric, and resonant endeavor, Zhao’s film nevertheless became slightly too predictable for my taste in its latter half. 

Best Director:

• Thomas Vinterberg
• David Fincher
• Lee Isaac Chung
• Chloé Zhao (prediction; pick)
• Emerald Fennell

In keeping with her film’s awards season spark, I predict Chloé Zhao to win for “Nomadland.” Zhao, who also wrote and edited the film, is a prime choice for this category. Lee Isaac Chung and Emerald Fennell also stand out among the nominees. However, I wasn’t on set for any of these films, so who am I to judge?

Best Actor:

• Riz Ahmed (pick)
• Chadwick Boseman (prediction)
• Anthony Hopkins
• Gary Oldman
• Steven Yeun

Every nominated actor gave a superlative performance, rendering my personal choice an arbitrary one. Chadwick Boseman’s portrayal of Levee Green in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” is undeniably powerful (my prediction to win), but I’d have to go with Riz Ahmed as Ruben in “Sound of Metal.” A complex and massively conflicted character, Ahmed imbues Ruben with a soulful edge that renders him one of the most memorable and empathetic protagonists in recent memory.

Best Actress:

• Viola Davis
• Andra Day
• Vanessa Kirby
• Frances McDormand
• Carey Mulligan (prediction; pick)

I haven’t seen “The United States Vs. Billie Holiday” or “Pieces of a Woman” yet (sue me), but I’m still confidently choosing Carey Mulligan’s performance in “Promising Young Woman” as the hopeful winner here. A shattered, sardonic soul fueled by grief, Cassandra is always a compelling presence. Mulligan’s portrayal captures her turbulent emotions with searing impact. Who will actually take home the Oscar, though? No clue, really. There isn’t a clear frontrunner going into the ceremony. 

Best Supporting Actor:

• Sacha Baron Cohen
• Daniel Kaluuya (prediction; pick)
• Leslie Odom, Jr.
• Paul Raci
• Lakeith Stanfield

Good grief, what an outstanding collection of performances. Paul Raci’s portrayal in “Sound of Metal” is first-rate, but I’m picking Daniel Kaluuya’s masterful turn as Chairman Fred Hampton in “Judas and the Black Messiah” as deserving of the trophy. Kaluuya gives a dynamite performance — conveying Hampton’s authoritative grandeur, but also quieter moments of reflection and intimacy. There’s little doubt in my mind that he won’t walk out empty handed. He should have been nominated for the “Best Actor” category, though. Hmph.

Best Supporting Actress:

• Maria Bakalova (pick)
• Glenn Close
• Olivia Colman
• Amanda Seyfried 
• Yuh-Jung Youn (prediction)

Besides the strange nomination of Glenn Close for her over-the-top performance in “Hillbilly Elegy,” this is a highly contested category. I loved Yuh-Jung Youn’s performance as the grandmother in “Minari,” but Maria Bakalova’s fearless work in “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” deserves all the accolades. It’s a downright impressive feat of acting and bravery, and she is most definitely my choice for this category. Even so, I predict Yuh-Jung Youn to win due to her previous awards showings.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

• Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (pick)
• The Father (prediction)
• Nomadland
• One Night in Miami
• The White Tiger

I’d have to pick the zany, oddly emotional screenplay for “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” as my preference here. I can definitely see Academy voters going for “The Father,” because of its theatrical structure and the ways it attempts to subvert viewer expectations of what’s really going on in Anthony’s daily life. 

Best Original Screenplay:

• Judas and the Black Messiah
• Minari
• Promising Young Woman (pick)
• Sound of Metal
• The Trial of the Chicago 7 (prediction)

Academy voters will probably side with Sorkin’s quippy, rapid-fire dialogue in “The Trial of the Chicago 7.” While that film’s script is definitely enjoyable, I find the incisive, darkly comedic screenplay of Emerald Fennell’s “Promising Young Woman” far more compelling. Chock full of memorable sequences and shocking twists, it forges a path all its own.

Best Cinematography:

• Judas and the Black Messiah
• Mank
• News of the World
• Nomadland (prediction; pick)
• The Trial of the Chicago 7

The cinematography of “Nomadland” is richly textured, conveying both the ruggedness of Fern’s lifestyle, but also utilizing her environment as a symbolic representation of her personal journey over the course of the film. “Mank” also features expert camerawork, but its presentation lacks the variety and thematic weight of the former.

Best Editing:

• The Father (prediction)
• Nomadland
• Promising Young Woman (pick)
• Sound of Metal  
• The Trial of the Chicago 7

There’s something to be said for all these nominees — each of the films has a different feel, and their editing accounts for that. Yorgos Lamprinos’ (not acclaimed director Lorgos Lanthimos) editing in “The Father” is especially noteworthy for the ways it manipulates and intentionally obfuscates the proceedings to immerse viewers into Anthony’s declining mental state. We never quite get our footing on reality in any given moment.

Best Production Design:

• The Father (pick)
• Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• Mank (prediction)
• News of the World
• Tenet

I admire how “The Father” manipulates Anthony’s environment to reflect his disorientation and the passage of time, but Academy voters will in all likelihood choose the meticulous attention to detail of David Fincher’s “Mank.” I wouldn’t be upset by that winning — the film has extremely high production value, but a lackluster screenplay supporting it.

Best Original Score:

• Da 5 Bloods 
• Mank
• Minari (pick)
• News of the World
• Soul (prediction)

It’s difficult to choose a favorite here — I’ve frequently revisited “What This Mission’s About” from Terrence Blanchard’s score for “Da 5 Bloods” — but my personal pick is Emile Mosseri’s score for “Minari.” Incredibly emotional and moving, Mosseri’s compositions perfectly complement the film’s poignant story of the American Dream. I’m predicting Jon Batiste, Trent Reznor, and Atticus Ross to win for “Soul” because of their previous awards momentum, as well as the musical contrast they create throughout the film. Side note: I bet “Soul” wins “Best Animated,” too, because it’s Pixar.

Best Original Song:

• Fight for You
• Hear my Voice (prediction)
• Husavik (pick)
• Seen
• Speak Now

I don’t feel particularly strongly about any of these nominees, but I’m choosing “Husavik” from “Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga” as my favorite for its strangely poignant, multilingual lyrics, with in-your-face sentimentality that’s kind of infectious. “Hear My Voice,” from “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” will doubtless emerge victorious — it’s simple, blunt, and fits in nicely with previous winners.  

Best Sound:

• Greyhound
• Mank
• News of the World
• Soul
• Sound of Metal (prediction; pick)

The sound design in “Mank” is impeccable in how it evokes films of the “Citizen Kane” era, but “Sound of Metal” should win this category, unquestionably. Utilizing innovative techniques to depict Ruben’s hearing loss, it becomes a character itself as his story unfolds.

Best Documentary Short Film:

• Colette
• A Concerto is a Conversation
• Do Not Split (pick)
• Hunger Ward
• A Love Song for Latasha (prediction)

This category was, yet again, a frustrating decision. Each of these nonfiction gems are stylistically distinct, but deeply poignant and immersive in their own ways. I was particularly gripped by the raw, uncompromising “Hunger Ward” (about the ongoing conflict in Yemen), and “Do Not Split” (an up-close-and-personal look at the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong). “A Love Song for Latasha,” documenting the life and murder of Natasha Harlins, will likely win. Presented in a mesmerizing, vivid fashion. “Love Song” is incredibly moving and would absolutely be deserving of the Oscar. 

Best Live Action Short Film:

• Feeling Through
• The Letter Room
• The Present
• Two Distant Strangers (prediction; pick)
• White Eye

An amazing collection of short films, I predict and really hope that “Two Distant Strangers” — about a young black man trapped in a time loop where he’s always killed by the same cop, no matter how he acts — wins the Oscar. A brilliant, heartbreaking film, it’s extremely relevant to today’s climate and remains absolutely essential viewing for anyone with a Netflix account.

Best Animated Short Film:

• Burrow
• Genius Loci
• If Anything Happens I Love You (prediction; pick)
• Opera
• Yes-People

This year’s batch of nominated animated shorts was an eclectic one, filled with varying tones, styles, and subject matter. The inventive construction of “Opera” and the twisted, fever-dream beauty of “Genius Loci” stand out in particular. Alas, my personal pick is the heartbreaking gut-punch of a film, “If Anything Happens I Love You.” Focusing on two emotionally distanced parents reeling from their daughter’s death, the film is profoundly well-made, and a prime example of doing less with more. The topic of gun violence is, sadly, ever-relevant, and this film is unflinching in confronting the grief left in its wake.