By Lynn Venhaus

After the longest awards season ever and the weirdest movie year of all-time, we reach the finish line with the Oscars Sunday night.

People may gripe about the 93^rd Academy Awards for several reasons, but you can’t say it is not going to be memorable. It might even be historic – there are a few records certain to be broken.

With 70 women nominated — the most ever – and a record two women in the directing category, we may see only the second woman win Best Director – and the first woman of color nominated. In 93 years! More on this in the category sections.

The show starts at 7 p.m. CST on ABC, coming to us live from the Los Angeles Union Station – and trains will be coming and going – and the Dolby Theatre. The previous award shows this season have involved taped segments and some Zooming, and ratings have tanked.

But producers claim this show will be different.

“The Oscars are not a webinar,” stated producer Steven Soderbergh, a filmmaker and Oscar winner for “Traffic.”

The Oscars, usually in February since 2004, pushed film eligibility to Feb. 28 and the awards for April 25, with some other groups doing the same, pandemic and all. What has shifted is the Big Mo, because movies like “Judas and the Black Messiah” came out later and Daniel Kaluuya went to the top of the list for Best Supporting Actor (even though he is a lead, but this isn’t the first example of category fraud and won’t be the last). I call this the second round, because many critics’ groups announced earlier.

After all the other awards – I am not counting the Golden Globes because we need to have a serious reckoning with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association – frontrunners have definitely emerged.

What has transpired with the Screen Actors Guild, other guilds (DGA, WGA, PGA), BAFTA (British awards), Independent Spirit Awards and the critics groups – I belong to the Critics Choice Association, Alliance of Women Film Journalists and St. Louis Film Critics Association – is either shoo-ins, like Kaluuya, “Soul” for Original Score and “Sound of Metal” for Best Sound, or tight nail-biters, such as Best Actress and Best Song.

It is easy to get cynical about the year that was, with movie theaters struggling and few blockbusters enticing folks out of their homes during a global pandemic, but I have seen many good movies streamed into my living room. I am OK with independent films and small-scale storytelling. I have seen nearly 170 films since the public health emergency forced a shutdown. I

After months of staying at home, I saw “Tenet” at the IMAX but have not returned to a movie theatre since then. Now that I am vaccinated and a COVID-19 survivor, I intend to go back. I miss that whole experience of “going to the movies.” It will be so satisfying when we can all watch a movie with an audience. I will never take it for granted again, and has been such a big part of my life since my youth.

The eight movies nominated for Best Picture are worthy and would be praised in any year: “The Father,” “Judas and the Black Messiah,” “Mank” (more for technical brilliance), “Minari,” “Nomadland,” “Promising Young Woman,” “Sound of Metal” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7.” “Da 5 Bloods” should be there.

My top 6 of the year were “Nomadland,” “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” “Da 5 Bloods,” “Minari,” “Promising Young Woman” and “Soul.” “Sound of Metal” was no. 11.

Now, every year, when I predict the Oscars, I overthink it. Some years are better guesses than others. And really, until that envelope is opened, one never knows (except for Price Waterhouse Coopers, the accounting firm that tabulates.

Currently, there are 10,000 members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. The Best Picture ballot is the only one where voting is different – it is a preferential ballot, where voters rank 1 through up to 10 (this year, 8). The winner must receive 50 percent of the vote plus 1. That is why we’ve had several upsets in recent years (“Moonlight” over “La La Land,” “Green Book” in 2019 and “Parasite” in 2020.

Without further ado, here are my predictions in all 23 categories, based on personal preferences and gut feelings, along with or the ‘conventional wisdom” of prognosticators and Oscar-metrics (yes, that is a thing).

BEST PICTURE
Will Win: Nomadland
Should Win: Nomadland
Could Win: Minari

BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Chloe Zhao “Nomadland”
Should Win: Chloe Zhao
Could Win: She’s won 40+ awards; it really is hers to lose

BEST ACTOR
Will Win: Chadwick Boseman “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Should Win: Chadwick Boseman
Could Win: Anthony Hopkins, “The Father”

BEST ACTRESS:
Will Win: Tough call but I am going with Carey Mulligan “Promising Young Woman”
Should Win: Carey Mulligan
Could Win: Frances McDormand “Nomadland” or Andra Day “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Will Win: Yun-Jung Youn “Minari”
Should Win: Yun-Jung Youn
Could Win: Maria Bakalova “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya (but it’s not a lead)
Could win: Paul Raci “Sound of Metal”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Emerald Fennell “Promising Young Woman”
Should Win: Emerald Fennell
Could Win: Aaron Sorkin “The Trial of the Chicago 7”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Floran Zeller “The Father”
Should Win: Floran Zeller “The Father”
Could Win: Chloe Zhao “Nomadland”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: Joshua James Richardson “Nomadland”
Should Win: Nomadland
Could Win: “Mank”

BEST EDITING
Will Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Should Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Could Win: “Sound of Metal” or “The Father”

BEST MUSIC SCORE
Will Win: Jon Batiste, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, “Soul”
Should Win: “Soul”
Could Win: “Mank”

BEST SONG
Will Win: “Speak Now” One Night in Miami
Should Win: “Fight for You” Judas and the Black Messiah
Could Win: “Lo Si” The Life Ahead

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will Win: Mank
Should Win: Mank
Could Win: The Father

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: Tenet
Should Win: Tenet
Could Win: Mulan

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Will Win: Soul
Should Win: Soul
Could Win: Wolfwalkers

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will Win: My Octopus Teacher
Should Win: Crip Camp
Could Win: Time

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Will Win: Another Round
Should Win: Quo Vadis, Aida
Could Win: Collective

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Should Win: Mank
Could Win: Pinocchio

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Should Win: Emma
Could Win: Mank

BEST SOUND
Will Win: Sound of Metal
Should Win: Sound of Metal
Could Win: Mank

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Will Win: A Concerto is a Conversation
Should Win: Love Song for Latasha
Could Win: Colette

LIVE ACTION SHORT SUBJECT
Will Win: Two Distant Strangers
Should Win: Two Distant Strangers
Could Win: The Letter Room

ANIMATED SHORT SUBJECT
Will Win: If Anything Happens I Love You
Should Win: If Anything Happens I Love You
Could Win: Opera